Package deal

By Adnan Adil

As expected, the government’s reform package aimed at defusing the ongoing tension within the province of Balochistan has not found favour with an overwhelming majority of Baloch leaders across the spectrum. While the separatist Baloch leaders have termed it a conspiracy against the nationalist movement, the federalist Baloch leaders are calling it inadequate. Their main grouse is that they were not taken into confidence while framing these proposals.

The Balochistan Nationalist Movement comprises two planks. The secessionists, who openly call for an independent Balochistan dismissing any resolution within the framework of Pakistan, include leaders such as Brahamdagh Bugti and Hyrbyair Marri. Some of them are living in Afghanistan and London and campaigning to take up the issue in the United Nations, at the pretext of human rights’ violations against the Baloch people by the state agencies. It was expected that they would not accept any reform plan announced by the government as they even dismissed participation in the electoral process within the federal framework and considered it harmful to their struggle for complete independence. The strength of these separatist groups lies in the support base among the Baloch youth and the covert support they are allegedly receiving from international actors interested in keeping Balochistan on boil for their own interests in the region.

For the time being, the situation is in favour of the Baloch nationalist leaders who can up the ante against Islamabad and it is certainly not helping the establishment since the military is already busy in the tribal region, fighting the Taliban insurgents.

The alleged presence of Pakhtun fighters in Balochistan makes the Baloch a natural ally of the international community because of the inherent possibility of expansion of the Afghanistan war theatre. Consequently, neither can the establishment use ruthless force nor can it withdraw from Balochistan because of regional security situation. That is why the Baloch separatists are increasingly seeking international support to attain their political rights as could be seen from the recent statements of leaders like Brahamdagh Bugti.

What little support Islamabad could hope for was to be got from moderate Baloch politicians such as Hasil Bizenjo, Abdul Malik and Abdul Hayee Baloch, but even they have rejected the government’s policy as inadequate and insufficient. Some of them have even expressed the doubt that the proposed steps will actually be implemented.

In the midst of these suspicions, Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani came forward with the reassurance that a cabinet committee will oversee the implementation of the reform measures and necessary legislation will be made to ensure the enforcement.

The opposition from the moderate Baloch leaders can be viewed in the context of their on-ground political compulsions. They are already on a weak wicket and fast losing ground to hard-line nationalists. The moderates cannot go beyond a certain point lest they would be seen as cooperating with Islamabad, because this way they stand to lose popular support in their respective constituencies. Only if they have something concrete to deliver to their supporters can they take the risk of supporting a government plan through and through. Islamabad, therefore, needs to bring the moderates among the nationalists on board.

The nationalists had boycotted the last general elections and, thus, they are out of provincial and national assemblies. But they could be consulted to examine the possibility of a mid-term provincial election in Balochistan so that they could have a stake in the system and become part of the implementation process.

One major reason why the government plan has come under fire is that it does not contain any substantive promise for provincial autonomy as demanded by the Baloch nationalists. The kind of autonomy the moderate nationalists are seeking borders on a confederation instead of federation. They want all powers, barring three or four subjects, to be transferred to the province. The proposed package does offer increased provincial powers by abolishing the concurrent list in the Constitution but this is, obviously, very little compared to what the Baloch nationalists have been asking for.

Doubts are cast even on the promised autonomy as it concerns constitutional amendments which, again, is a complicated issue.

Cautious optimism about the success of the proposed relief measures rests with their successful implementation. As per the package, Balochistan would receive billions of rupees in additional funds which, if properly utilised, may be helpful in resuscitating the moderate elements. For example, if the federal government does actually employ 5,000 Baloch youth, as it has announced, it may assuage their outrage. Something like this also happened in the early days of Gen Ziaul Haq who employed 500 Baloch young men in grade-16 and grade-17 positions in different federal departments and state-owned corporations, thereby successfully warding off an insurgency. The Baloch youth are the backbone of the Baloch nationalist movement and much depends on how successfully the federal government is able to negotiate with them and bring them into the mainstream.